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| The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel | 
 enlarge | Authors: Stephen Leeb, Glen Strathy
Publisher: Business Plus
Category: Book
List Price: $16.99
Buy New: $3.87
You Save: $13.12 (77%)
Buy New/Used/Collectible from $3.87
Avg. Customer Rating:  (81 reviews)
Sales Rank: 26411
Languages: English (Original Language), English (Unknown), English (Published)
Media: Paperback
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 224
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.6
Dimensions (in): 8.9 x 5.9 x 0.7
ISBN: 0446699004
Dewey Decimal Number: 330.900112
EAN: 9780446699006
ASIN: 0446699004
Publication Date: February 21, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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| Customer Reviews:
 Speculations about the Coming Economic Collapse August 29, 2008
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
At the end of the book Leeb gives some solid tips for picking stocks
that will benefit from higher oil prices and inflation. His general
thesis that the next decade could mirror and exceed the trends of the 1970's does seem compelling. Unfortunately I have some serious concerns about the soundness of the research that he uses to predict that an imminent and prolonged oil shock is on the horizon.
In general he seems to draw from his experience as a PhD psychologist
more than from either his math or economics background. He repeatedly
makes the assertion that "group think" is responsible for the experts
ignoring the fact that we are reaching a peak in oil production and
that demand will far outstrip supply in the near term. This assertion
is the core of his thesis. If you allow that there exist experts that
depend on accurate analysis of oil reserves and demand that do not
suffer from "group think" then the book amounts to little more then a
speculative stock picking book. I also noticed that most of the
references he makes in the book are to Scientific American articles or
popular non-fiction books such as Jared Diamond's "Collapse". His
research does not appear to be any deeper than what any layperson
could cobble together from the books and magazines they normally read.
I believe in the end that speculative stock picks is all this book has
to offer. It is a stock picking book by a professional stock picker,
who has accurately identified trends in the past, and has found a new
concern among investors and capitalized on it. His previous
prediction about the collapse of technology shocks shows he has good
timing, but good timing does not guarantee that everything he believes
will come to pass in the time frame he predicts. If speculating on
the market is what you want to do, then his book is as good as any on
the topic. It does not appear to offer principled investment advice
based new research or insights though.
I took notes, see below, on the points that led me to my conclusion.
Perhaps you'll want to review these sections to see if you also find
them troubling.
Pg 66-68 - Author shows his support of Keynsesian economics. He
argues for government spending is a preferable response to inflation
then balanced budgets. He never discusses the place that increased
productivity plays in decreasing inflation. If "Chindia" does become
modernized in the next ten years, as he asserts, won't that increased
productivity have a negative impact on inflation?
He advocates a get rich quick scheme is better then a get rich slow
system offered by modern portfolio management. The saying, "you can't
cheat an honest man" comes to mind when I read that.
Pg 82 - Leeb writes: "The government wll likely resist conservation
for fear of the economic consequences." This does not appear to ring
true to me.
Aren't poor nations likely to conserve even more then the U.S.A.? He
says Chindia must grow - but can they afford to grow if oil becomes
expensive?
He claims US Natural Gas has peaked, but I thought there were large
untapped gas deposits in the US.
Pg 86 - Leeb writes: "Safe to assume Saudi own energy consumption will
again grow by about 10% a year" and will consume 1/2 of new
production. This does not ring true to me. Seems like more complex
story here.
Pg 96 - "no new energy supplies waiting to come online." But what
about Alaska? If things get tough, we have the Arctic National
Wildlife area right?
"Government debt at record highs ($7.8 trillian)" BUT - as an
inflation adjusted percent of GDP how big is our debt? He doesn't
say. Using absolute values like this is misleading.
Pg 99-100 - Leeb down plays downside of letting inflation rise to
devaluded the dollar. Focus on inflation hurting returns, but not
cost to business planning. Fed may not allow inflation for that
reason.
Pg 112 - Leeb claims best strategy in the 70's is essentially to buy
at start of a rally and sell at top of a rally. Nothing more then buy
low, sell high. Not a great insight and no plan for the future.
Would be worth reading "The Prize" by Yeagin. This is written by a
true oil industry insider.
Pg 141 - Leeb writes - "Only massive effort by Federal Government will
be able to solve the energy crisis". Here he shows his statist bias.
How about some trust in the power of capitalism?
Pg 149 - claims oil/gasoline price is subsidized by the US Government.
He sites tax breaks, but this does not ring true to me. It seems
like the government taxes gas and oil more then it creates special
targeted subsides.
Pg 136 - Claims hydrogen from wind is a viable technology. This
ignores massive problems with hydrogen storage and inefficiency of
straight electrolysis. Basic physics is completely ignored.
Pg 173 - According to chart, gold peaked for a very short period
around 1978/79, then has averaged approx $350 since. 1975 deregulated
gold which accounts for the big increase and he uses that short peak
when he describes the profit made from gold. Using such precise stock
timing to make his point strikes me as dishonest.
 Review August 17, 2008
This book predicted the housing collapse, the credit crunch and the problems we are having with gas and gas guzzlers
Good August 8, 2008
I thought this book had some really good ideas on how to evaluate the level of economic stress from ongoing oil shortages, and offered some good thoughts on how take advantage of oil depletion. I not sure that all the ideas have worked out, but I think that the author has another book out and I would like to read it.
A MUST READ FOR THE 21st CENTURY August 3, 2008
TWO WORDS: MUST READ! An intelligent and well-laid-out discussion of the global energy crisis and the ineptitude, inaction, and complete denial of the US government and citizens concerning same. Dr. Leeb correctly predicted the 2008 oil crisis very early in this decade (when oil prices were still hovering at $35/bbl and all market and governmental pundits predicted more of the same ("The Oil Factor"). In this book, he astutely portrays the current energy crisis, its history, and possible civilization-changing ramifications IF immediate and costly actions are not quickly taken. Understanding the denial and "follow-the-group" mentality of human nature, Dr. Leeb concludes this expert treatise by wisely laying out a suitable investment strategy to help one survive and prosper while others struggle with their heads still firmly imbedded in the ground. Impressive work and excellent read!
Great read... July 31, 2008
Loved this book when it came out. Very few at the time could even imagine $100/barrel oil, now the next step is $200.
There are some great investment tips towards the end and also gives you a pretty intense idea of what would happen if oil hits new records.
A good one to at least check out. Also, good book format and interior makes it an easy read. Most of these oil books are boring, but this seems to keep the readers attention.
Hope this review helps.
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